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Global Markets Update: Spy Tensions, AI Spending Sprees, and the Weak Dollar Divide

The global economy has been buzzing with developments — from geopolitical crackdowns in Europe to a wave of bold, and some say risky, deals in the artificial intelligence space. Meanwhile, in the U.S., a weakening dollar is creating winners and losers among major corporations. Here’s a breakdown of what’s making headlines this week.

Europe Tightens the Screws on Russia

European governments are moving to curb the movements of Russian diplomats amid fears of espionage and infiltration. The proposed restrictions — part of a new security package requiring unanimous EU approval — follow reports of suspected spy attacks and even arson attempts linked to Russian agents.

The plan, if passed, would sharply limit travel for Russian officials across Europe, reflecting a tougher stance as tensions between Moscow and the West continue to simmer.



OpenAI’s Big Spending Spree Raises Eyebrows

OpenAI is on a deal-making rampage. The company has reportedly agreed to purchase tens of billions of dollars’ worth of chips from AMD, one of the world’s leading semiconductor producers. As part of the deal, OpenAI is also expected to take up to a 10% equity stake in AMD.

But that’s not all — OpenAI has also inked a $300 million, five-year contract with Oracle for cloud computing and signed a $12 billion agreement with CoolWave, another major computing provider.

While these moves appear to cement OpenAI’s dominance in the AI infrastructure space, analysts are sounding the alarm.



Why Analysts Are Worried

Many of these deals, critics say, depend on money that OpenAI doesn’t currently have. The financial structure has been described as “circular” — the company spends huge sums on chips and cloud services while simultaneously relying on investments from those same providers. Essentially, money is moving back and forth between OpenAI and its partners, inflating valuations but not necessarily generating real economic value.

This has led to growing fears that an AI bubble could be forming — one driven by hype and speculative investments rather than sustainable profit.

The risk, analysts warn, is that if demand for AI slows or if new competitors (especially from China) emerge, the entire structure could wobble. To avoid that fate, companies in the sector will need to deliver genuine growth and long-term value, not just flashy deals.

France’s Political Turmoil Deepens

In France, political instability is once again making headlines. Prime Minister Sébastien Likearnu has resigned — less than a month after being appointed — plunging the country into further crisis.

The resignation stems from the government’s ongoing failure to agree on a budget to tackle its growing deficit, a deadlock that’s making investors increasingly nervous. With leadership uncertain and fiscal challenges mounting, France faces renewed questions about its political and economic direction.

The Weak Dollar Divide: Exporters vs. Domestic Players

Across the Atlantic, U.S. markets are being reshaped by a declining dollar — but not all companies are feeling the effects equally.

Export-heavy multinationals are reaping the rewards. According to Goldman Sachs, an index tracking the 50 S&P 500 companies with the most international exposure has risen 21% this year, while those focused primarily on the U.S. domestic market are up just 5% — the widest gap since 2009.

A weaker dollar boosts U.S. exporters in two ways:

  • Foreign earnings increase when converted back into dollars.

  • American goods become more competitive abroad, thanks to lower relative prices.

Domestic-focused firms, like large retailers and import-heavy businesses, don’t enjoy the same lift — they aren’t being hurt, but they’re missing out on the gains.

What’s Next for the Dollar — and U.S. Investment

Most analysts expect the dollar’s decline to continue, with further interest rate cuts likely this year and next. This could widen the gap between exporters and domestic firms even further.

However, there’s a silver lining. Lower interest rates generally stimulate economic activity by making borrowing cheaper. If rates fall without tipping the economy into recession, the result could be a more balanced boost across sectors.

For now, though, multinational giants — especially those with strong overseas earnings — continue to be the biggest beneficiaries, deepening the concentration problem within the S&P 500.





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